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Brexit Watch - News and Views

Heavyweight Brexiteers among 60 Tory MPs to demand clean break from the EU

(19/11/16) Sixty Tory MPs including seven ex-Cabinet ministers have demanded Theresa May pulls Britain out of the single market and customs union amid fears her Brexit stance could be watered down.Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith, John Whittingdale and Theresa Villiers are among the leading Eurosceptics to put their names to the negotiation demand. Read the article in the Telegraph. See also Bob the cartoonist's take on the Supreme Court judges and House of Lords

Brits are stupid! Europhile peer behind Article 50 sparks fury after he says we need MORE migrants because we're not intelligent enough

(18/11/16) The peer who co-wrote the legal mechanism by which Britain will leave the EU sparked fury last night after arguing that the country needed immigration because ‘we native Brits are so bloody stupid’. Lord Kerr said the UK needed an influx of intelligent foreigners to keep us on the right path. And he claimed the Leave side only won the referendum by ‘cleverly outsourcing xenophobia and racism’ to Nigel Farage – allowing the Ukip leader to make the sort of offensive claims that would boost the campaign. Read more in the Daily Mail.

How the House of Commons will fight Brexit

(17/11/16) If you thought Brexit was chaotic now, just wait until divorce proceedings actually start. Within the next two years, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May must get parliament’s approval to kickstart Britain’s withdrawal, convert all EU law into U.K. law, introduce an immigration bill restricting freedom of movement from the Continent and negotiate a divorce deal with Brussels that doesn’t wreck the economy or spark a fresh bid for Scottish independence. Read the story on Politico.

UK could owe EU up to €65 billion after Brexit

(16/11/16) The U.K. could have to pay between €55 billion and €65 billion to the EU before it leaves the bloc to cover existing budgetary obligations, according to a senior EU diplomat. A large portion of Britain’s bill will go toward the pensions of EU civil servants — not just Brits, but all EU nationals working for the European institutions. The U.K. had agreed to contribute about 15 percent of the EU budget that covers pensions for Eurocrats. On top of that, the U.K. will be billed for infrastructure projects. Read the story on Politico.

The number of Eastern European migrants employed in Britain rose by almost 50,000 between July and September

(16/11/16) The number of Eastern Europeans working in the UK has surged since the EU referendum vote amid concerns that migrants will be barred from entering after Brexit. The Office for National Statistics revealed that the number of Eastern European migrants employed in Britain rose by almost 50,000 between July and September. The figures reveal that the overall number of non-UK nationals working in Britain has risen by 241,000 to 3.4 million since the EU referendum in June. he number of Eastern Europeans working in the UK has surged since the EU referendum vote amid concerns that migrants will be barred from entering after Brexit. Read the story in the Telegraph.

MPs Call on Theresa May to Make Use of Farage’s Links to Donald Trump

(14/11/16) Tory MPs and members of Theresa May’s cabinet have called on the Prime Minister to make use of Nigel Farage’s close links to Donald Trump to build transatlantic links and a trade deal after Brexit. Read the story on Breitbart.

Theresa May could try to overturn Brexit court ruling by claiming Article 50 won't affect UK citizens' rights

(12/11/16) A senior Government source revealed lawyers are exploring whether the argument could give Ms May the edge to reverse the shock High Court decision that is forcing her to let MPs vote on triggering the Brexit process. The line of argument relies on the notion of Britain’s "dualist" legal system – the idea that international law is not applicable in the UK until it is translated into national legislation. Read the Independent article.

Why Trump's victory is a timely reminder to those in Britain who defy the will of the people - Richard Littlejohn

(10/11/16) There was one word — beginning with ‘Br’ and ending in ‘it’ — which kept tumbling from the lips of both jubilant Trump supporters and devastated Clintonistas as it became clear that The Donald had defied the pundits and the pollsters to become the 45th President of the United States. Brexit.

Trump tapped into the same sense of alienation and anger which inspired so many people in Britain to vote Leave — the feeling that the smug political class and their celebrity sycophants have been lording it over the rest of us for far too long. Read the Daily Mail article.

Brexit DID mean that we voted to leave the Single Market - Farage

Grab of The Agenda panel 7 Nov
(7/11/16) Nigel Farage appeared on ITV's The Agenda on 7th November, hosted by Robert Peston, and was challenged by some of the panelists over his assertion that when Britain voted for Brexit, we voted to leave the Single Market. This short video of a series of useful clips of key politicians - from both sides - stating during the referendum campaign that voting 'Leave' DID mean the UK would leave the single market puts paid to these ridiculous panelists and the host. As an aside, the panelists included Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry, comedian David Baddiel, Sunday Times Political Editor Tim Shipman, and Republican Overseas' Jan Halper-Hayes. Watch the clip.

Trade options after Brexit

(Nov 2016) After the referendum vote to leave the European Union, important policy decisions remain about the model for the UK’s future relationship with the EU – whether to remain in the single market, opt for EEA, a free trade agreement or independent WTO membership.

This article by the Economic & Social Research Council is a summary of a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, entitled The EU single market: the value of membership versus access to the UK. Branch members will no doubt view it as very 'pro-Remain' but it is interesting also because it describes the options available to the UK. Read the article.

Farage to lead 100,000-strong march on Supreme Court on day of historic Brexit court hearing

(07/11/16) Nigel Farage is planning to lead a 100,000-strong march to the Supreme Court to coincide with the start of the Government’s attempt to stop peers and MPs delaying Brexit.

The march, organised by the anti-European Union campaign Leave.EU, will end with a rally in Parliament Square within sight of the court building where judges will be hearing the appeal. Read the article in the Telegraph.

UKIP and Constitutional Reform - by John Poynton FCA

The decision by the High Court that Brexit does require an Act of Parliament before Article 50 can be triggered highlights the out-of-date nature of our unwritten constitution. It derives from the Glorious Revolution of 1688 when sovereignty transferred from Crown to Parliament. That was certainly an advance for democracy at the time, but since then the franchise has become universal and by implication the people as a whole have become sovereign, not Parliament. Yet our constitution has never been updated to reflect this. It brings the people into conflict with parliament, which is not safe or healthy.


Why Britain should leave the EU – by Mike Lynch

(04/11/16) This long post by an anonymous lawyer, is yet another powerful, reasoned argument as to why Britain must leave the EU. It exposes the shaky foundations on which the EU is built and questions the pillars which sit on these foundations. He posits three reasons why the motives for which the EU was set up are actually wrong, and questions four arguments justifying its existence - peace, economic, human rights, and 'togetherness'. Read the full post...

The unelected 'activist' judges who mounted a 'power grab': High Court trio who blocked Brexit are led by one who founded group dedicated to furthering European integration

(03/11/16) The bombshell court ruling which has bogged down Britain's exit from the EU in a legal quagmire has sparked a row over how UK judges are appointed.

The Lord Chief Justice, Baron Thomas of Cwmgiedd, alongside Sir Terence Etherton and Lord Justice Sales, ruled that the Prime Minister does not have power to trigger Article 50 to start the two-year Brexit process. The unelected trio were today accused of 'striking down the will of the people to set in train leaving the EU'. Read the article in the Daily Mail.

Article 50 court decision risks provoking huge public anger - Nigel Farage

(03/11/16) From the UKIP national website:

Following the High Court decision calling for a Parliamentary vote on the triggering of Article 50, Nigel Farage said,

"I worry that a betrayal may be near at hand. Last night at the Spectator Parliamentary Awards I had a distinct feeling that our political class, who were out in force, do not accept the 23rd of June Referendum result.

"I now fear that every attempt will be made to block or delay the triggering of Article 50. If this is so, they have no idea of the level of public anger they will provoke."

Brexit could overwhelm UK politicians: Think tank warns that negotiations will test the UK to the limit

(02/11/16) Brexit is such an enormous legal, constitutional and bureaucratic challenge that could prove too much for British politicians and civil servants to untangle, according to a report from independent think tank U.K. In A Changing Europe, published Wednesday. Read the article on Politico.

(05/11/16) Comment by John Poynton:
This is interesting news - the idea that all the laws emanating from the EU are not in fact already on the statute book! The latter is what we have always been told.

In any case the article misses the point. Brexit simply gives us the freedom to make our own choices; to 'take back control'. Our review of all these laws will indeed take a long time, whether they have to be included ,excluded or just modified, but it all happens after Brexit. There is no rush or need for delay. Another Remainer red-herring?

Brexit-backing boss of Wetherspoons threatens to stop selling European beers if 'bullying' EU leaders impose tariffs on Britain

(02/11/16) Tim Martin, the Brexit-backing chairman of JD Wetherspoon, made the threat to European leaders as he warned that sales at the pub chain have slowed. He used a first-quarter trading statement to rip into German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker for their reaction to Britain's decision to leave the EU. He accused them of putting European businesses at risk by telling them not to negotiate with UK companies and to adopt an 'intransigent' attitude. Read the article in the Daily Mail.

The spectre of Scoxit - Bagehot

(22/10/16) It remains in Scotland’s interests to stay in the United Kingdom. Yet it is also true that the two largest parts of Britain’s union are growing apart. Brexit is both a symptom and a catalyst of that process, lending nationalism momentum and allowing unionists no room for complacency. They underestimate Ms Sturgeon at their peril. Read the article in the Economist.

Brexit could pull the pin out of the EU grenade. That's why the Eurocrats are terrified.

(25/10/16) The EU is in crisis, and its leaders know that Britain's departure could be the bloc's breaking point. Mr Tusk and his fellow Eurocrats know that many citizens are unhappy with the way things are going, and so could be inspired by Britain if it can show that a better future awaits outside of the EU. A successful Brexit could in effect be the start of a stampede of member states towards the exit door that could see the EU crumble. Read the article in the Telegraph.

Brexit will not cause UK trade 'disruption' - WTO boss

(26/10/16) The head of the World Trade Organisation has vowed to ensure Britain will not face a trade "vacuum or a disruption", however tough its exit from the European Union.Roberto Azevedo said that he did not believe the Brexit vote was "anti-trade" and dismissed fears that Britain could suffer a sudden seizure of trade during or after its negotiations with the EU. Read the article on Sky News.

REMOANER ALERT! 'Brexit is not the will of the British people – it never has been'

(24/10/16) The Rev Adrian Low analyses the post-referendum polls and demographic trends and argues that the UK electorate, as a whole, has been consistently against Brexit and the Remain majority will increase year-on-year. Oh dear! Read the post on the LSE blog.

Calm down. We don’t need a negotiating stance on Brexit

(22/10/16) It’s time for everyone to calm down. There’s a long way to go, and there can really only be one objective for Britain – securing the best possible ongoing economic and diplomatic relationship. The rest is just noise. Read the post by Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph.

UK economy expands after Brexit vote

(27/10/16) The U.K.’s gross domestic product grew by 0.5 percent in the three months following the Brexit vote. The figure came in better than expected in the first official assessment of economic growth released since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in June. Many analysts had anticipated a slide into a recession from the shock result.Read the Politico article.

Britain is the most business-friendly major economy, World Bank rules as its annual index casts fresh doubt on doom-laden Brexit warnings

(25/10/16) Britain is the most business-friendly major economy on the planet, the World Bank has said – casting fresh doubt on predictions of economic collapse after Brexit. The UK came top of the G7 group of industrialised countries in an annual index on ease of doing business, one place ahead of the US and significantly higher than any nation in the Eurozone.

In the overall league table, Britain ranked seventh. Supporters of Brexit said the study scotched claims that Britain would cease to be attractive to investors after leaving the EU. Read the Daily Mail article.

Four reasons why banks won't leave the City of London after Brexit

(25/10/16) Oliver Wyman’s report for TheCityUK on life beyond Brexit estimated that even under the hardest of departures - with no deal with the EU and the UK operating on WTO terms - some 35,000 jobs would be at risk. But such a high number is unlikely for the following four reasons. Read the Telegraph article

EU'll lose out! 'Hard' Brexit would cost other member states £8BILLION a year more than the UK

(25/10/16) A 'hard' Brexit would leave EU states facing nearly £8billion a year more in tariffs than the UK, according to a report. Firms from the bloc would add almost £13 billion a year in costs to their exports if Britain leaves the customs union without an alternative free trade deal. By contrast UK companies would be hit with a much lower £5.2 billion bill for sales to the other 27 states. Read the Daily Mail article

It's nonsense! Banks dismiss gloom-laden claim they'll quit the UK after Brexit

(24/10/16) Banks and Tory MPs last night dismissed as ‘nonsense’ dire warnings that financiers will move their business abroad due to Brexit. Anthony Browne, head of the British Bankers’ Association, sparked fury yesterday by saying smaller banks could react to the uncertainty by moving operations overseas within weeks.

He predicted that larger financial institutions would follow in the first few months of next year, saying: ‘Their hands are quivering over the relocate button.' But the gloom-laden claims were undermined by the fact that a number of High Street banks said leaving the EU would make little difference to their business. Read the
Daily Mail article

Ministers fear UK-EU trade deal could take decade as Walloons torpedo Canada agreement

(23/10/16) Ministers fear it could take a decade to secure a post-Brexit free trade deal with the European Union after a little-known region in Belgian blocked a flagship agreement with Canada. Crisis talks between EU leaders and Canada collapsed on Saturday following the decision of Wallonia, with a population of 3.5 million, to torpedo the deal.

It meant a the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement [CETA] which had been signed off by all 28 EU countries has now been plunged into uncertainty. Read the full article in the Telegraph and the article from The Guardian, EU-Canada trade deal in crisis as Canadian minister walks out

The City of London should thank the voters of Wigan for Brexit

(19/10/16) Deutsche Bank’s problems are symptoms of the EU malaise caused by over-regulation and political conceit, writes Brian Monteith.

A new paper by banking expert Bob Lyddon “The Deutsche Bank liability”, published by Global Britain, explains why the storm clouds are gathering and the liabilities that the UK could face. Any rescue will be a multi billion affair, and while the UK remains tied to EU institutions like the European Investment Bank and the European Central Bank, we will be liable for a hefty share of any financial lifebelt that is thrown Deutsche’s way. Read the full article on Reaction

'Mr. Market' won’t be able to stop and reverse Brexit

Could Mr. Market, and his old gang of friends, the Bond Vigilantes, be about to give the British electorate a lesson in economic realities? In the view of some of the more excitable City commentators, and indeed some of the most senior officials in Brussels, the harsh consequences of leaving the European Union are about to hit home. There is a problem, however, and it is far from minor one. It is not really true. Read Matthew Lynn on
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