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Brexit Watch - News and Views

EU will demand exit bill, former UK ambassador Sir Ivan Rogers warns

(01/02/17) European leaders believe Brexit “exploded a bomb” underneath the EU’s budget and they will “care passionately” about securing an exit bill of up to €60 billion from the U.K., the former British ambassador to the EU warned Wednesday.

Sir Ivan Rogers, who resigned last month, criticizing “muddled thinking” in government, said the U.K.’s departure would create “immense” financial difficulties for the EU. He said reports that EU leaders were considering demanding up to €60 billion from Britain were “genuine” and would become a major sticking point in negotiations after the triggering of Article 50. Read the full article on Politico.

We'll meddle in Brexit deal, says the European Court of Justice: President reveals he expects to intervene as he sets body on collision course with Downing Street

(02/02/17) The EU’s top court is on a collision course with Downing Street after its president said he expects to intervene in Brexit and could even make changes to a deal. Koen Lenaerts, president of the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ), said he was certain that the notoriously meddlesome body would become involved in the process.

Although the court cannot choose to step in, the Belgian believes there is a strong chance that one side of the negotiations - likely to be the EU - could lodge a legal challenge opposing a part of any Brexit deal that might be struck up. Read the full story in the Daily Mail.

The EU’s customs union is a protectionist racket

(13/01/17) This article is by Ryan Bourne who occupies the R. Evan Scharf Chair in the Public Understanding of Economics at the Cato Institute in Washington DC. In it he makes clear his view that the case for remaining in the customs union is overwhelmed by the advantages and opportunities from leaving.

The author explains how the customs union works, how protectionist it is, and what being a member means for us. Did you know that the Common External Tarriff (CET), coupled with non-tariff barriers imposed by the EU, has resulted in UK agricultural and manufactured goods prices being around 20 per cent above world prices?

He argues that leaving the customs union would act like a big dynamic tax cut through the economy – lowering goods prices directly, but also leading to more efficient industry as all face competition at world prices. Read the full article on CapX.

Terrified Germany DEMANDS EU wraps up trade deals QUICKLY following Theresa May's US visit

(28/01/17) Terrified over the burgeoning relationship between Theresa May and Donald Trump, Europe’s leading economic power urged Brussels to launch a deal-making spree. German officials warned EU finance ministers at a meeting in Brussels yesterday that urgent action is needed over perceived threats posed by Brexit and Trump’s presidency.

Finance minister Thomas Steffen sent a document to other EU states urging them to tie up 12 free trade deals with countries including China and Australia as quickly as possible. Read the article in the Daily Express.

The Remoaners-in-chief: MPs who DEFIED the will of their constituents by voting against triggering Article 50

(01/02/17) A handful of hardline Remoaner MPs ignored the will of their own constituents tonight by voting against triggering Article 50. Some seven Labour, one Liberal Democrat and an SNP MP defied the outcome of the EU referendum in their own areas by opposing legislation that will start the process of cutting ties with Brussels. In an extraordinary speech confirming he would oppose the Bill, backbencher Chris Bryant insisted he was a 'democrat' but would be siding with the 'minority'. Read the full article in the Daily Mail.

David Cameron 'tried to get Mail editor sacked' over Brexit stance

(01/02/17) The proprietor of the Daily Mail told its editor that David Cameron pressed for him to be sacked during the EU referendum, BBC Newsnight has learned. Lord Rothermere told Paul Dacre the prime minister urged him to rein in his pro-Brexit editor, then suggested he sack him, a source told the BBC. Read the full article on BBC News.

John 'The Vulcan' Redwood on fire in his speech in the Article 50 debate in Parliament

John Redwood in the House of Commons
(31/01/17) Watch John Redwood in the chamber give one of his most impressive speeches ever. Not reading from script, he begins softly but raises the tempo until at the end (1min 18s) he is on fire as he says that if the UK had voted to remain in the EU, he would have had to resign because he'd "see no point in this puppet Parliament". He continues that as a result of the vote by the British people "this Parliament is going to be made great by the people, and made great despite itself". This was his 'Henry Vth' moment so enjoy. Not bad for a Vulcan. Watch the clip on Russia Today's YouTube channel.

City lobby group comes out fighting for global Brexit in dramatic u-turn

(31/01/17) The City's top lobby group, TheCityUK, has performed a dramatic u-turn on Brexit, scrapping its previous campaign to remain in the EU and instead hailing the vote to leave as “unprecedented opportunity” for the UK to develop a powerful new set of trade and investment policies.

The group, which represents banks, finance firms and the professional services industry, now believes that Britain’s departure from the EU represents “a once-in-a-generation opportunity” for a strategic re-think of commercial relationships with the rest of the globe. Read the full article in the Telegraph.

UK lawyer plots legal bid to make Brexit reversible

(31/01/17) As British lawmakers gather to debate whether to trigger the formal exit from the European Union, London lawyer Jolyon Maugham is building a case which he hopes will ensure that British voters can still reverse it. The 45-year-old tax specialist, an opponent of leaving the EU, said it was right for Prime Minister Theresa May to start the exit process, but voters should also have a right to change their minds if parliament rejects the terms she negotiates.

He filed a case in Ireland last week that he hopes will go to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Luxembourg, to establish that Britain can reverse the exit process without requiring permission from the other 27 EU members. Read the full story in the Daily Mail.

Dominic Cummings: how the Brexit referendum was won

This very long article by the Campaign Director of the Vote Leave campaign explains the background to the campaign and suggests reasons as to why 'Leave' won the referendum. He admits that he needs to shorten this piece but it does give a very good insight into his thinking and strategy. There is no doubt that Cummings was pivotal to the success of the campaign but his criticism of Leave.eu and Nigel Farage and the Grassroots Out campaign, whilst valid at times, reveals the deep distrust between the 'Leave' camps. This article offers an insight into the mind of one architect of the campaign - but it's a disturbing place to visit. Read the full article in The Spectator.

Labour MPs put forward Commons motion to throw out article 50 bill

(28/01/17) A group of backbench Labour MPs have put forward a Commons motion to throw out the government’s bill to trigger article 50, arguing they cannot support Theresa May’s plan to take Britain out of the EU’s single market.

Tabled by the former shadow health secretary Heidi Alexander, and supported by 18 fellow Labour backbenchers, the proposal would, if passed, see the bill that would set in motion departure from the EU stopped entirely early next week. Read the full article in The Observer.

Four Key Truths About Brexit - official UKIP leaflet

Four Key Truths about Brexit
This 8-page leaflet has been produced by UKIP to help counter some of the 'Remoaner' lies that persist. 'Project Fear' is still being re-cycled by the unaccountable elite and we know they will stop at nothing to try to slow or even reverse Brexit, as the Supreme Court case demonstrates.

This leaflet contains four key truths about Brexit. Please read and bear these in mind when you come up against a 'Remoaner' in private or public. Please also share this pdf with friends and colleagues inside and outside UKIP. View and download The Truths About Brexit.

New book out: The Great Brexit Swindle: Why the Mega-Rich and Free Market Fanatics Conspired to Force Britain from the European Union

The Great Brexit Swindle book cover
In the interests of showing the 'other side's' viewpoint, we thought to highlight this book: 'If you voted to Leave the European Union, the chances are you've been swindled...' In his urgent new book, T. J. Coles uncovers the forces seeking to uncouple Britain from the European Union. Allied to an expanding core of free market fanatics in the Conservative party is a powerful group of globalists and financial traders. Their political ideology is neoliberalism - a worldwide agenda that seeks to deregulate markets and maximize profits for global elites at the expense of working people. The effect is a growing gap internationally between rich and poor. Digging deep into the funding campaign, The Great Brexit Swindle documents the potent, self-serving interests etc etc zzzzz zzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzz zzzzzzzz Read the full summary if you dare on Amazon.

916,000 Polish nationals live in the UK, more than the total number of British nationals living in the EU

(27/01/17) About 900,000 British citizens are living in other European Union countries – fewer than the previous widely quoted estimate of 1.2 million, according to research by the Office of National Statistics.

The new lower estimate is likely to have implications for the forthcoming negotiations between Britain and the EU over the future residency rights of the 3.15 million EU nationals living in the UK and British citizens in the rest of the bloc. Read the full article in The Guardian.

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill 2016-17

(27/01/17) The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill is a public bill presented to Parliament by the Government. The Bill was introduced to the House of Commons and given its First Reading on Thursday 26 January 2017. This stage is formal and takes place without any debate.
What happens next?

MPs will next consider the Bill at Second Reading. The Bill is expected to have its Second Reading debate on Tuesday 31 January 2017 with conclusion of Second Reading on Wednesday 1 February 2017. The Bill is then due to be considered in Committee on Monday 6 and Tuesday 7 February 2017, concluding in Committee on Wednesday 8 February 2017 when the remaining stages are also due to take place. See the Parliament website.

Economists review past economic forecasts - 12m video

Grab of Andrew Neil, Danny Blanchflower and Liam Halligan on the Daily Politics show
(26/01/17) Daily Politics presenter Andrew Neil looks at past predictions with economists Danny Blanchflower and Liam Halligan and the financial analyst Louise Cooper.

Today's growth figures for the UK economy were more positive than forecasters had predicted, showing Britain had the fastest-growing economy in the G7 group, and indicators were more positive than the gloomy short-term forecasts made during the referendum campaign. Watch the video on the BBC.

Article 50: which MPs are planning to vote against it (aside from Cambridge MP Daniel Zeichner)?

(24/01/17) EuroGuido's spreadsheet includes a column showing how each MP’s constituency voted in the referendum, quite a few are bravely planning to defy their own voters – those Welsh Labour MPs can expect a major UKIP challenge in 2020. Ken Clarke is the only Tory who has signalled an intention to vote against Article 50. See the spreadsheet on Order-Order.com.

Article 50 ruling: Courts should never have got involved in Brexit, says dissenting judge

(24/01/17) Judges should never have been allowed to rule on how Brexit should be triggered because it is a matter for politicians and not the courts, one of the Supreme Court Justices said. Lord Carnwath, one of three Justices who sided with Theresa May, said the courts had taken “too narrow a view” of the issues at stake and should have left it to Parliament to settle its own affairs.

Together with fellow dissenters Lord Reed and Lord Hughes, he said the Prime Minister was within her rights to use the power of royal prerogative to trigger Article 50, but the three men were overruled by the eight other Justices, who all concluded that the law required a Parliamentary vote on the matter. Read the full story in the Daily Telegraph.

Even Remainers think May's deal respects the referendum result, and five other charts explaining what Brits want from Brexit

(23/01/17) Polling from YouGov reveals the split in public opinion over Brexit - while many are many prepared to ditch the single market, Remainers and Brexiters are failing to see eye to eye.

Meanwhile, many still fail to understand what the Labour Party stands for in the debate as Theresa May's plan slowly gathers acceptance from all sides - even from reluctant Remainers. Read the full article in the Daily Telegraph.

Britons think Theresa May's vision of Brexit would be good for the country and believe no deal is better than a bad one - YouGov

Graphic showing polling results on Brexit
(18/01/17) Asked about May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" 48% of the public agree, compared to 17% who would rather have a bad deal than no deal at all. 55% of people said that May should be prepared to walk away. It is a different question whether the public would actually be so sanguine about May coming back from negotiations empty handed. Our previous polls have suggested that less than a third of people think it would be good for Britain to leave the EU without any new trade deal. Read the full article with research results on YouGov.

Godfather of ‘Brexit’ takes aim at the British Establishment - New York Times' profile of Arron Banks

(21/01/17) Arron Banks is the person considered, with Nigel Farage, the former leader of the U.K. Independence Party, as most responsible for Britain’s voting to leave the European Union. In a nearly four-hour interview recently, he happily admitted that he was adamantly opposed to the European Union and that he hated the Conservative Party and especially its previous prime minister, David Cameron. For him, Mr. Cameron’s resignation was almost more satisfying than the victory of the so-called Brexiters in the June referendum. Read the full article in The New York Times.

Britain is not bluffing and will not be bullied over Brexit plans, UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall tells EU

Picture of Paul Nuttall speaking in the European Parliament
(18/01/19) UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall MEP told the European Parliament today that Britain is not a country that will be bullied easily by EU negotiators, following Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement of her Brexit objectives. He also criticised the lack of response from Jeremy Corbyn's Labour and its demise as the party of working people.

Speaking in Strasbourg, Mr Nuttall said: “No-one in Britain bar UKIP, my party, is holding the government to account on these issues, maybe because the British Labour Party is a shambles that has let down working class people for far too long.” Read the full article on the UKIP website Daily Mail.

Welcome to the Westmonster

Westmonster image
(19/01/17) This week sees Leave.eu launch Westmonster, a new website that will burst the Westminster bubble by giving the public the big breaking news and essential insights about Brexit as we begin pulling out of the crumbling European Union. It isn’t just for obsessive followers of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, or even British politics. It will provide digestible coverage of all of the day’s major stories in an engaging, insightful and ever so slightly provocative way. This is a news source for passionate politicos and casual observers alike. Visit the Westmonster site.

Brexit will deal a 'shock' to the EU's budget, forcing taxpayers across the continent to foot the bill for the hole left by Britain's £8.5bn a year bill

(18/01/17) The EU must brace itself for a 'shock' when it comes to filling the hole in its budget left by Britain's €10billion (£8.5bn) a year contributions, a Brussels think-tank has warned. The remaining 27 member states will have to decide whether to increase their share of budget contributions, cut spending or a combination of the two, the report said. But the research by the Jacques Delors Institute, a pro-federal Europe think-tank, warned there is 'no easy way to fill the "Brexit gap" of around €10billion per year'. Read the full article in the Daily Mail.

The 12-point Brexit plan explained: Theresa May warns EU she will walk away from a 'bad deal' for Britain

(17/01/17) Theresa May has threatened EU leaders that she will walk away from negotiations with Brussels if they attempt to give Britain a “bad deal” as she revealed her 12-point plan for divorce talks.

The Prime Minister made clear that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” and warned leaders in Brussels that any attempt to damage the UK during the negotiations would be an “act of calamitous self-harm” for the EU. Read the full article in the Daily Telegraph.

Brexit voters are the 'lager louts of Europe' says Cambridge professor

(18/01/17) People who voted to leave the EU have been branded ‘the lager louts of Europe’ by a Cambridge professor. In an article for pro-EU newspaper The New European , Professor Nicholas Boyle describes Brexit as an act of “geopolitical vandalism”, and calls the idea the referendum result expresses the will of the British people a “great lie”. Read the full article in the Cambridge News.

Nigel Farage on 'Sophy Ridge on Sunday' on Sky - full interview (8 mins)

Farage on Sophy Ridge on Sunday

(15/01/17) Excellent interview by our former leader who talks about Trump, the US and a trade deal, the EU and a trade deal, and himself. Watch it on YouTube.

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, says Britain could transform its economic model if deal with EU is unsatisfactory

(15/01/17) In an interview with the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, Hammond said that if Britain were closed off from European markets after leaving the EU, it would consider abandoning a European-style social model with European-style taxation and regulation systems, and “become something different”.

The chancellor made his remarks in response to the suggestion that “the impression on the European continent is that your government sees the future business model of the UK as being the tax haven of Europe”. Read the full interview in Die Welt am Sonntag.

EU negotiator wants 'special' deal over access to City post-Brexit

(13/01/17) The EU’s chief negotiator in the Brexit talks has shown the first signs of backing away from his hardline, no-compromise approach after admitting he wants a deal with Britain that will guarantee the other 27 member states continued easy access to the City.

Michel Barnier wants a “special” relationship with the City of London after Britain has left the bloc, according to unpublished minutes seen by the Guardian that hint at unease about the costs of Brexit on continental Europe - twice as many euros are traded in London than in the 19 countries of the single currency combined. Read the full article in The Guardian.
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