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Brexit Watch - News and Views

‘What on Earth is Boris playing at?’ Farage questions Johnson vow to help Turkey join EU

Appearing at a press conference alongside the Turkey’s EU minister Ömer Çelik, Mr Johnson vowed Britain would help the country “in any way possible” to join the EU. Commenting on Mr Johnson’s declaration of support for Turkey’s EU membership, former Ukip leader Mr Farage said: “One of the reasons UK voted to leave EU was prospect of Turkey joining." Read the article in the Daily Express.

Brexit has broken our political Ice Age. Bring on the revolution before the big freeze takes hold again

An article by Daniel Hannan MEP theorising what the Brexit trade deal will look like and how Britain will lead the world in promoting and bringing about free trade.

He says: "Doing so will do more to enrich developing states than decades of government-to-government aid; it will also help the poorest people in Britain, who spend the highest proportion of their income on food and clothes. Free trade is not just an efficient allocator of resources; it is also a poverty alleviation mechanism, a conflict resolution mechanism, a social justice mechanism."

Read the full article in the Telegraph.

Germany's banks are a timebomb. And if they crash, it'll be 2008 all over again

Excellent article by the Daily Mail’s City editor, Alex Brummer, on the problems that Deutsche bank is in and the ramifications for Chancellor Merkel if she intervenes - or doesn’t. At the end he sums it up succinctly:

‘...Germany’s banking predicament is surely proof that the one-size-fits-all Eurozone doesn’t work...the EU is facing a financial catastrophe of enormous proportions just at a time when the world is already facing huge uncertainty from the economic slowdown in China. Here, in Britain, we should surely be thankful that, after the Brexit vote, we are preparing to jump clear of the clattering train as it heads for a ravine.’ Read the article.

Britain WILL avoid recession following Brexit vote says World Trade Organisation

Britain will avoid recession following the historic decision to leave the European Union, according to the World Trade Organisation. The global watchdog, which regulates international trade, became the latest group to declare that the UK economy has shrugged off the Brexit vote. It came as a string of technology bosses lined up to say they are committed to Britain and will continue to invest in the country. Read the article in the Daily Mail.

Had Cameron not 'lied' Brexit result may have been different, says Wetherspoon's boss

If former Prime Minister David Cameron had not lied to the British public by presenting the "lousy deal" he had secured from the European Union as a good one, instead simply laid bare the uncompromising nature of Brussels and recommended staying in regardless, things could have turned out differently, according to Tim Martin, the outspoken chairman of pub and restaurant chain JD Wetherspoon. Read the article in the International Business Times.

The Treasury now admits that Brexit vote 'will not dent economy this year' as UK growth forecasts back to pre-referendum levels

The UK's decision to leave the EU will not dent growth at all this year, according to economic forecasts compiled by the Treasury, in a complete reversal of the gloomy short term forecasts made after the EU referendum.

Panic has faded rapidly among the dozens of independent economists consulted by the Treasury as strong data in the three months since the vote reassured the analysts that any shock from the vote was far less severe than first feared. Read more about the Treasury eating humble pie in the Telegraph.

A day to stand back from the fray, and marvel at the stupendous fact of Brexit

Graphic of EU flag but with Union Jack exit door
Paul Goodman, ex-MP and now the executive editor of the influential website ConservativeHome, reflects on what we achieved on 23rd June and what the state of all the main parties is 3 months on. Read the article

Brexit warning: US bank bosses from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock threaten Theresa May with relocation

The bosses of several of America’s biggest banks and corporations have warned Theresa May they will pre-emptively shift operations into Europe unless she can provide early clarity on the future shape of EU-UK relations, The Telegraph has learned.

According to an account of the meeting, Mrs May declined to provide information about how the British government would approach the Brexit negotiations, other than pursuing a deal that was “in the national interest”. Read the article

Don’t pine for Europe: Britain’s traditional trees will be boosted by Brexit, says Kew's top expert

The fashion for importing old trees for 'instant gardens' from the Continent makes it easier for plant-eating pests to get into the UK. This Kew Gardens expert claims tighter bio-security laws could be enforced in a Brexit deal. Another reason why Brexit is good! Read the article in the Daily Mail

EU appointment of Mr Verhofstadt - the 'high priest' for Brexit negotiations - is 'a declaration of war'

Three minute speech by Nigel Farage in the European Parliament on 14th September upon the appointment of Guy Verhofstadt as the EU's chief negotiator for Brexit.



EU referendum: The result in maps and charts

How Britain voted in the EU Referendum via maps and charts as reported online by the BBC. Read the article

'Disgraceful' Bank of England chief Mark Carney must quit for fuelling Brexit fears, claims ex-Chancellor Lord Nigel Lawson

Lord Lawson has called on Mark Carney to stand down as Governor of the Bank of England last night after his ‘disgraceful’ conduct over Brexit. The Conservative peer and former chancellor accused the Canadian of joining ‘the chorus of scaremongering’ during the EU referendum campaign. Read the article in the Daily Mail

Wall Street banks want Theresa May to delay Brexit for as long as possible

Wall Street chiefs and US business leaders are reportedly asking Britain's prime minister Theresa May for a "long runway" to prepare for Brexit. The Financial Times reports that at a meeting in New York earlier this week banks asked for a "long lead time" of up to two years to prepare for Brexit and a period of transition for them to adjust to the new world. Read the article on Business Insider

May limbers up for a hard Brexit (Financial Times)

This article by Martin Wolf, Chief Economics commentator at the Financial Times, bemoans the vote for Brexit. Whilst the thinks that Britain will be 'meaner and poorer', he also argues that there is no halfway house between EU membership and a 'hard' exit. Read the full article

British banks WILL be able to cope with Brexit despite bankers losing EU passports says credit agency Moody's

Banks will not really suffer if a Brexit deal ends freedom of movement across the EU, an influential credit rating agency has said. Experts from Moody's have said the impact on the City of London of the loss of 'passporting rights' is likely to be 'modest'. Its report contrasts with doom-laden predictions from Remainers who predicted the banking sector would be devastated by Brexit. Read the full article

Royal Yacht Britannia to rule the waves after Brexit

The Royal Yacht Britannia should be recommissioned and used to secure trade deals after the Brexit vote, dozens of MPs, former ministers and a senior former aide to the Queen say. Read the article

EU shrinks in importance to UK exporters as rest of world buys in

Trade with the EU is already shrinking rapidly as a share of Britain’s global commerce and could fall to below one-third of the UK’s overseas market in the coming decades, according to an economic analysis. Read the article

Why London will be an economic powerhouse after Brexit

London has retained its crown as the leading global city of opportunity and will remain a top destination for years to come despite the UK’s decision to leave the EU, according to PwC. This article in The Telegraph also includes a short video showing 5 possible alternative models to EU membership. Read the article

What Brexit will mean for UK financial services

An excellent article by the Centre for Policy Studies which suggests that the impact of Brexit 'will mean that London continues to be Europe’s leading financial services centre.' It goes on to say that 'London is ranked the most competitive in the world for financial services, while closest EU rivals rank at 15th and 19th'.

The article also covers the sensitive issue of passporting, suggests that Brexit will offer the UK new opportunities for UK financial firms, and will enable them to avoid punitive EU regulation. Read the article

Brexit gives us a chance to finish the Thatcher revolution

This is an excellent article in the Financial Times by Lord Lawson, Chancellor of the Exchequer under Margaret Thatcher. In it he argues that the focus on negotiating a trade deal with the EU that gives us free access to the single market is wrong and will not be successful.

Instead he argues that the 'government needs to focus on how we propose to conduct ourselves as a self-governing nation outside the bloc.' It is the benefit of 'intelligent deregulation' that 'offers the prospect of the greatest economic gain'.
Read the article (note that you may require a login or complete a short survey to read it)

BREXIT Article 50 and the 17th March 2017 'deadline'

A contribution by Stuart Agnew MEP who states that this is a regular question to head office:

Question:
Is it true we have to trigger Article 50 by 17 March 2017 because after that EU law changes so that a specified percentage of member countries have to agree to a member country's application to leave?

Answer:
In short the answer is "no, it is not true", it is a common misconception and misreading of Article 50. Once notice is given under Article 50 the UK will leave the EU two years later with, OR WITHOUT, an agreement with the remaining Member States. Nigel is on record as pointing out that the absence of a deal would be better than the deal we have at the moment because our annual contributions to the EU budget are larger than any tariffs the EU could put on our goods under WTO rules.
Where Article 50 refers to Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) it is in respect of the possible agreement on the framework for future trade and detailed mutually agreed provisions on how the exit is to work in practice, if there is no agreement the UK leaves after the two year period anyway (unless everyone including the UK agrees to extend the period of negotiations).

Why 'Brexit lite' is a terrible idea which will shackle us to a ticking time bomb

Compelling article in the Daily Telegraph by Martin Brolin, the author of A State of Independence: Why the EU is the Problem not the Solution. Read the article

'Single currency experiment has been a disaster' admits Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

Picture of The Euro book by Jospeph Stiglitz
In his highly readable The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe, Stiglitz judges this 17-year-old monetary experiment “an economic and political disaster”. The highly-respected journalist, Liam Halligan, reviews this book in his Sunday Telegraph column. He ends, 'This is a book, then, that will unnerve millions of British centre-Left progressives – those who backed British EU membership unquestioningly and now complain bitterly about Brexit. Many such voters, after all, view Stiglitz as their favourite economist.' Read the review in the Telegraph
Read Dominic Sandbrook's article in the Daily Mail

The real casualty of Brexit: the reputations of economists who predicted doom

Picture of Matthew Lynn, journalist
Matthew Lynn writes: With a very few exceptions, economists forecast that the U.K. would go straight into recession as a result of Brexit. As it turns out, however, Britain is doing just fine, and so is the rest of Europe. That is surely a calamity for which the profession deserves a beating — and at the very least should start asking itself some serious questions. Read the full article on MarketWatch

Brexit boom: The five charts which show Britain has escaped an economic apocalypse

Stack of £1 coins
Image by Petr Kratochvil.

This is an article in the Telegraph (19th August 2016) by Tim Wallace, Banking reporter.

Unemployment is down, prices are steady, shoppers are confident and the government ran a budget surplus in July. It is early days and a slowdown is still expected, but the data is reassuring so far. Read the full article

Opinion: Buy Britain, but sell Europe after stunning Brexit rebuke

Collage of Union Jack and EU flag with 'Brexit' superimposed.
Image by Starline - Freepik.com

Below is a link to an article by Matthew Lynn, who writes for WSJ Marketwatch, The Spectator and Money Week as well as The Telegraph.

This article puts a positive view of the future for the UK outside of the EU and states that the impact of the Brexit vote has been 'wildly overstated'. It argues that the UK will neither gain nor lose much from going it alone, but that the EU will suffer not only as a result of the UK's exit but also because it has shown itself incapable of structural and fiscal reform. Read the full article

Insanity reigns on the Continent

The Motley Crew
The following is a recent post by Freddy Vachha, Regional Chairman of UKIP London:

Dear friends,

Many who know me through my emails recognise I'm a man of relatively (more on relativity later) few words. While there are many words below, only a few of them are mine.

For any who need a key to the cast of the Great and the Good featured in the Motley Crew image above, here it is:

TOP ROW: Angela Merkel, German Chancellor; Herman Van Rompuy, former President of the European Council; Donald Tusk, his successor; Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Libdem group in the EU "Parliament" (sic); Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the EU Commission; José Manuel Barroso, his predecessor. MIDDLE ROW: Not Bobo the Clown but François Hollande, President of France; Christine Lagarde, M.D. of the IMF; Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank; Martin Schulz, President of the EU "Parliament"; Nick Clegg, former leader of the Libdems, on loan from the EU; Catherine, The Baroness Ashton of Upholland, former V.P. of the EU Commission and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. BOTTOM ROW: The Lord Mandelson for whom no summary could render the justice he so richly deserves; Tony Blair, former Labour P.M.; Gordon Brown, his successor; Ed Miliband, former leader of the (Labour) Opposition; George Osborne, former Conservative Chancellor; David Cameron, former Conservative P.M.

Here's a selection of what their policies have wrought...
Picture of Angela Merkel
While we're still trapped in the EU, most of the millions invited by Merkel into Europe (tens of millions more no doubt plan to embark) could eventually get documents so as to legally come to the UK to live, work and claim benefits.

INSANITY

Definition of insanity by Einstein
While there's no evidence that Einstein ever used those words, having read much of what he wrote (I'm a physicist too, albeit a relatively mediocre one) I'm confident that is how the great discoverer of relativity actually thought.

An embarrassing (for me, that is) aside: Mutti Merkel, who, ignoring science, is the arch-nemesis of nuclear power stations, is a physicist too. Allegedly.

Though the EU is the obvious source of the many enormous problems faced by Europe, the solution of the German Chancellor & Co. is - yet more EU! This perfectly meets the definition of insanity commonly attributed to Einstein. And here's a bona fide quotation which I think has application to how the erstwhile Communist and her cohort have run Europe (run into the ground, that is):

"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it." - John Lennon.

I confess cannot grasp the motivation of this EU-enabling mob. It can't just be incompetence, can it? But then again, when the French held a referendum on the EU constitution, Juncker boasted:
"If it's a 'Yes', we will say 'on we go', and if it's a 'No', we will say 'we continue'."

TO ALL THOSE 'REMOANERS' WHO PREDICTED THE APOCALYPSE
Panel clock 37 days since Brexit
MAY MAY SAY "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT" - BUT ONLY UKIP WILL ENSURE THIS!

Do get everyone you know, Theresa too, to join UKIP

Note: The views above do not necessarily represent UKIP or opinion.



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